Provincial heterogeneity in the Philippines is examined by integrating climate, macroeconomic, and fiscal indicators within a unified framework. Moving beyond regression-based approaches, k-means clustering is applied to identify natural groupings of provinces based on combined climate-real-fiscal (CRF) characteristics. Utilizing satellite-derived climate data and administrative economic and fiscal datasets, the analysis reveals a clear core-periphery structure. Metropolitan Manila emerges as a highly urbanized, service-driven, and fiscally dominant outlier, while the rest of the country divides into (1) warmer, transitioning provinces with emerging diversification and (2) cooler, wetter, agriculture-dependent provinces with higher climate exposure and weaker fiscal capacity. The results highlight strong interlinkages between climate conditions, economic structure, and fiscal resilience, indicating a climate-macroeconomic trap in vulnerable regions. A policy-relevant typology is provided to support differentiated, place-based interventions for more efficient targeting of climate finance and development programs.
Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph.
